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Poll Dancing

Posted by on September 26, 2012
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The main stream media is constantly proclaiming that Obama continues to maintain a slight lead in the polls in a concerted effort to convince us that Obama is still “the man”.  Nothing Romney does seems to help and nothing Obama does seems to hurt.  I have spoken with many conservatives who get disheartened every time they look at the polls.  This is exactly what they media wants.  However, a simple logical look at the underlying polling numbers portrays a totally differing story of reality than what the media is feeding us.  The first and most obvious issue with this polling portrayal has to do with simple logic.  Naturally if you were to take a survey at the DNC convention Obama would show a huge advantage.  In that same respect if you were to oversample Democrats by as much as 13% it’s going to look good for Obama, but it’s also an unrealistic model.  If you take out all the excessive demographic weighting and oversampling most polls are currently using they look profoundly different from what we are being led to believe. gives a more realistic portrayal by simply taking out all the oversampling from each of the major polls and creating an average among them rather than attempting to extrapolate data based on exit poll averages from 4 years ago the way other polls do.  After all, we are now dealing with different opponents, a different environment, and we now lack the historical elements to this election that existed 4 years ago.  Therefore, the data sampling from 4 years ago on its own is totally void of any real relevancy.  The number that you see once a more historically accurate exit poll sampling model has been applied is that Romney actually holds a 7.8% advantage over Obama. Once you dig behind the initial numbers even further, this new number starts to make even more sense.  Obama’s current aggregate job approval number is only 44.1%.  Pundits have been scratching their collective heads trying to figure out why it is that Romney can’t seem to make any headway against such a poor performing President.  After all, our economy is in the tank, his most famous achievement (Obamacare) is universally hated in its own polling data, and his foreign policy has proven to be an unmitigated disaster.  With this new numerical truth they can now see that Romney has actually been leading all along. The main stream media won’t hesitate to proclaim that Obama is still leading amongst key demographics such as women, Blacks, Hispanics, and Jewish voters and in that respect they are correct.  However, what they won’t tell you is that even though he has been leading in all those demographics, his margins amongst each of them has shrunk from the leads he enjoyed 4 years ago.  His margins amongst both the young and the elderly have pretty much vanished.  So in essence a 12 point margin with single women might sound pretty impressive until you realize that it used to be around 18 points before. Another aspect has to do with those that are undecided.  As Dick Morris points our there really isn’t such a thing when there is an incumbent candidate in the mix.  Undecided simply means that you’ve already decided that you don’t want to vote for the incumbent.  Therefore, the undecided either doesn’t vote at all, or if they do, historically 90% end up voting for the challenger.  As Dick points out, if someone were to ask you if you plan on still being married to the same person next year, if you’re answer is that you’re undecided, then most likely your answer is “NO”. The one key element that is missing and almost impossible to measure is what the actual voter turnout will be.  It doesn’t matter what the polls show.  If a politician can’t excite their own supporters enough to get them to the polls they lose.  Obama swelled his ranks on the first go round with both his charismatic style and by playing off the historical significance of that election.  This time around the historic element is gone and so is his charisma.  At the end of the day what the real polling shows is that nobody cares about how articulate a speaker is when his dismal record speaks in an even louder voice. In 1980 the media attempted to play a similar game with the polls when the Left had yet another failed President in Jimmy Carter.  Once again, the effort was to control the actual outcome by first controlling the projected outcome.  In that race Carter showed a 7 point lead just a week before the election.  In reality Reagan won by a 9 point landslide.  The media wants us to believe that Obama still maintains the enthusiastic crowds of 4 years ago.  In reality this election still has plenty of enthusiasm.  Unfortunately for Obama, this time around the voter enthusiasm isn’t built around simple terms like hope and change.  This time around the enthusiasm is built around this nation getting a chance to correct a big mistake.
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